Roma Predict
Follow the smart money before the odds move. See what insiders see — and what it means for crypto.
What It Does
Roma Predict is a Polymarket-focused analytics terminal with deep smart-money tracking and event-probability analysis. It provides Roma's verification layer — the data that confirms whether a signal from Roma News is real or noise.
Core Capabilities
Smart Money Intelligence
Roma Predict doesn't just track individual wallet transactions. It builds behavioral profiles of informed traders:
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Wallet Profiling | Historical win rate, preferred event categories, average position size |
| Group Behavior Detection | "3 known smart wallets all buying Yes in the same event" |
| Early Mover Detection | Wallets that consistently position before odds shift |
| Insider Pattern Recognition | Algorithmic identification of informed trading activity |
Large Trade Monitoring
Real-time detection and analysis of significant position changes:
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Threshold Alerts | Trades exceeding $10K flagged in real time |
| Direction Analysis | Net flow direction (buying Yes vs. No) |
| Timing Analysis | Correlation between large trades and subsequent odds movement |
Event Probability Analysis
Structured data on how prediction market odds respond to real-world events:
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| Odds History | Full historical curve for every tracked event |
| Volatility Tracking | How rapidly odds are shifting (signal of new information) |
| Correlation Mapping | Which crypto assets have historically moved with this event's odds |
Role in the Roma Ecosystem
Roma Predict serves two critical functions in the broader system:
1. Signal Verification
When Roma News detects an event, Roma Predict answers: "Does the smart money agree?"
- If smart money is positioning in alignment with the news → signal is verified, confidence increases
- If smart money shows zero activity → signal may be noise, confidence decreases
- If smart money positioned before the news → insiders knew, signal is very likely real
2. Probability Graph Calibration
Prediction market odds provide an independent, market-implied probability for events. This gives the Probability Graph a second calibration source beyond just price outcomes:
- News tells us an event happened
- Prediction market tells us how the market priced the probability
- Perp market tells us the actual price impact
Three points of calibration are structurally more accurate than one.
Production Infrastructure
Roma Predict runs production-grade infrastructure:
| Component | Technology |
|---|---|
| API Integration | Polymarket CLOB SDK, Gamma API |
| Background Services | Order sync, large trade detection, smart money tracking, new market monitoring |
| Event System | Redis event bus for real-time broadcasting |
| Monitoring | Prometheus metrics, health checks |
| Notifications | Telegram bot for large trades, new markets, smart money alerts |